Many modern generative modeling methods, including diffusion models, normalizing flows, and flow matching, estimate transport maps or plans between distributions without explicitly targeting an optimal transport (OT) map. In applications like generative modeling, the transport cost itself is irrelevant, and this makes it natural to target maps which are more tractable from either a statistical or computational standpoint. In this short note, we formalize the task of estimating any valid transport map in a rigorous minimax framework. One consequence of this framing is that it yields sample complexity lower bounds for any method whose learned object is evaluated as a transport map or plan, including flow matching and diffusion-based generative models, in settings where direct analysis would be challenging due to the analytic complexity of the methods and their target maps. We observe that, under standard, though strong, stability assumptions from the OT literature, estimating any valid transport map is statistically as hard as estimating the OT map. We complement these results with some examples showing that when these stability assumptions fail, alternative transport maps can be learned substantially more accurately than the OT map. Our minimax framing provides a rigorous foundation for understanding the statistical limits of modern transport-based generative methods and clarifies when targeting sub-optimal maps can provide real statistical advantages.

The optimal transport (OT) map is a geometry-driven transformation between high-dimensional probability distributions which underpins a wide range of tasks in statistics, applied probability, and machine learning. However, existing statistical theory for OT map estimation is quite restricted, hinging on Brenier's theorem (quadratic cost, absolutely continuous source) to guarantee existence and uniqueness of a deterministic OT map, on which various additional regularity assumptions are imposed to obtain quantitative error bounds. In many real-world problems these conditions fail or cannot be certified, in which case optimal transportation is possible only via stochastic maps that can split mass. To broaden the scope of map estimation theory to such settings, this work introduces a novel metric for evaluating the transportation quality of stochastic maps. Under this metric, we develop computationally efficient map estimators with near-optimal finite-sample risk bounds, subject to easy-to-verify minimal assumptions.

The optimal transport (OT) map is a geometry-driven transformation between high-dimensional probability distributions which underpins a wide range of tasks in statistics, applied probability, and machine learning. However, existing statistical theory for OT map estimation is quite restricted, hinging on Brenier's theorem (quadratic cost, absolutely continuous source) to guarantee existence and uniqueness of a deterministic OT map, on which various additional regularity assumptions are imposed to obtain quantitative error bounds. In many real world problems these conditions fail or cannot be certified, in which case optimal transportation is possible only via stochastic maps that can split mass. To broaden the scope of map estimation theory to such settings, this work introduces a novel metric for evaluating the transportation quality of stochastic maps. Under this metric, we develop computationally efficient map estimators with near-optimal finite-sample risk bounds, subject to easy-to-verify minimal assumptions.

Machine learning has matured to the point where we often take key design decisions for granted.

The optimal transport (OT) map is a geometry-driven transformation between high-dimensional probability distributions which underpins a wide range of tasks in statistics, applied probability, and machine learning. However, existing statistical theory for OT map estimation is quite restricted, hinging on Brenier's theorem (quadratic cost, absolutely continuous source) to guarantee existence and uniqueness of a deterministic OT map, on which various additional regularity assumptions are imposed to obtain quantitative error bounds. In many real-world problems these conditions fail or cannot be certified, in which case optimal transportation is possible only via stochastic maps that can split mass. To broaden the scope of map estimation theory to such settings, this work introduces a novel metric for evaluating the transportation quality of stochastic maps. Under this metric, we develop computationally efficient map estimators with near-optimal finite-sample risk bounds, subject to easy-to-verify minimal assumptions. Our analysis further accommodates common forms of adversarial sample contamination, yielding estimators with robust estimation guarantees. Empirical experiments are provided which validate our theory and demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework in settings where existing theory fails. These contributions constitute the first general-purpose theory for map estimation, compatible with a wide spectrum of real-world applications where optimal transport may be intrinsically stochastic.

We thank all reviewers for their constructive feedback! We address reviewers comments below, and will incorporate all feedback. This explains why SD outperforms LS. Please refer to our response to [R3] for discussion on CD. One can alternatively compute the variance of prediction confidence.

Gaussian Cox processes are widely-used point process models that use a Gaussian process to describe the Bayesian a priori uncertainty present in latent intensity functions. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian inference scheme for Gaussian Cox processes by exploiting a conceptually-intuitive path integral formulation. The proposed scheme does not rely on domain discretization, scales linearly with the number of observed events, has a lower complexity than the state-of-the-art variational Bayesian schemes with respect to the number of inducing points, and is applicable to a wide range of Gaussian Cox processes with various types of link functions. Our scheme is especially beneficial under the multi-dimensional input setting, where the number of inducing points tends to be large. We evaluate our scheme on synthetic and real-world data, and show that it achieves comparable predictive accuracy while being tens of times faster than reference methods.

Educators teaching entry-level university engineering modules face the challenge of identifying which topics students find most difficult and how to support diverse student needs effectively. This study demonstrates a rigorous yet interpretable statistical approach -- hierarchical Bayesian modeling -- that leverages detailed student response data to quantify both skill difficulty and individual student abilities. Using a large-scale dataset from an undergraduate Statics course, we identified clear patterns of skill mastery and uncovered distinct student subgroups based on their learning trajectories. Our analysis reveals that certain concepts consistently present challenges, requiring targeted instructional support, while others are readily mastered and may benefit from enrichment activities. Importantly, the hierarchical Bayesian method provides educators with intuitive, reliable metrics without sacrificing predictive accuracy. This approach allows for data-informed decisions, enabling personalized teaching strategies to improve student engagement and success. By combining robust statistical methods with clear interpretability, this study equips educators with actionable insights to better support diverse learner populations.